Something quite rare happened in Kenya yesterday – there was a sprinkling of rain across many areas of this drought-ravaged country.

It was by no means a deluge, but hope springs eternal in Africa and it’s brought new optimism about the forthcoming short rain season, traditionally October to December, and the prospects of relief from four years of inadequate precipitation.

However, there are no guarantees and ActionAid, the emergency relief and development charity, has warned that 10 million people, a quarter of the Kenyan population, are suffering food shortages.

It’s certainly not a 1980′s Ethiopian-scale crisis yet, although people are starting to die. But if the rains remain elusive for a fifth year, the current food shortages will quickly develop into starvation without a large-scale relief effort.

Yusuf Artan of ActionAid said: “The rains have been inadequate for the last four years and a quarter of Kenya’s population. 10 million people, are now in dire need of food aid. The livestock still hasn’t recovered from the 2005 drought and already we have to confront a new drought. The drought cycle is getting shorter and shorter – every three years instead of every 10.”

As Artan suggested, drought is not a new thing in Kenya. Much of the country is arid rangeland suitable only for nomadic pastoralism and over generations people have developed coping strategies to help survive the regular periods when the rains failed.

Based on past experience, pastoralists could often anticipate drought and reduce herds sizes, send cattle to relatives in other less drought-afflicated areas and neighbours often agreed to share limited water and grazing resources.

The problem is the increased frequency of the droughts which is rendering such strategies obsolete.

Leina Mpoke of Concern Worldwide said “In the past we used to have regular 10-year climatic cycles which were always followed by a major drought. In the 1970s we started having droughts every seven years. In the 1980s they came about every five years and in the 1990s we were getting droughts and dry spells almost every two or three years. Since 2000 we have had three major droughts and several dry spells. Now they are coming almost every year, right across the country.”

It takes time for pastoralists to recover from a drought. Herds build up in strength and vitality given a run of good rain years. But back-to-back droughts do not allow for this.

There can be little doubt that Kenya is experiencing devastating climate change, here, now in 2009, not in some modelled, scientifically predicted future. Whether it’s man-made is subject to debate but that’s irrelevant to those faced with, at best, the abandonment of livelihoods that have served their families for generations.

Mpoke refers to other environment impacts: “The frequency of heatwaves is increasing. Temperatures are generally more extreme, water is evaporating faster, and the wells are drying. Larger areas are being affected by droughts, and flooding is now more serious. We are seeing that the seasons have changed. The cold months used to be only in June and July but now they start earlier and last longer. We have more unpredictable, extreme weather. It is hotter than it used to be and it stays hotter for longer. The rain has become more sporadic. It comes at different times of the year now and farmers cannot tell when to plant. There are more epidemics for people and animals.”

It’s no longer a case of coping, more one of survival, and many pastoralists are abandoning their nomadic lifestyles in the face of impossible conditions.

Hawa Hassan has recently settled in Makutano, not far from the border with Somalia: “We have no water and no food. We have left the pastures because we have lost so many goats. We had to come here to seek assistance. For the past two months we have talked and talked about making this decision. We waited because we thought there might be some rain. I’m not sad that I came. I can get water here. I don’t want to leave my life. If I could get some goats then I would return to herding. I can’t feel good about being in a settlement. It has been forced on me. I don’t wish it for my life.”

An estimated 170,000 head of cattle have died as a result of the drought so far and people are now dying from starvation related illnesses and conflict over the few resources that remain.

The United Nations Humanitarian Office reports at least 38 Kenyans have been killed in recent conflicts over food and water. And yesterday at least 31 people were reportedly killed in Laikipia District in a cattle rustling incident blamed on the drought.

The World Bank’s, World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change,  launched simultaneously in Nairobi and Washington yesterday, did little to engender a sense of optimism: the report identified Kenya as one of the countries likely to be hardest hit by climate change.

Climate change is already hitting many Kenyans hard and there’s little they can do but cross their fingers for rain next month and again in April / May 2010, traditionally the time of the long rains.

ActionAid however is not waiting and has recently distributed US$25,000 worth of food supplies to the hardest hit communities. Much more maybe needed in coming months.

Quotes taken from the following articles:

John Vidal, ‘Climate change is here, it is a reality’, The Guardian

Peter Beaumont, The last nomads: drought drives Kenya’s herders to the brink, The Guardian

SPONSOR AN AFRICAN CHILD WITH ACTIONAID