One of the global conservation movement’s greatest achievements, the moratorium on commercial whaling, is set to be overturned with a new arrangement that will legitimise Japan, Norway and Iceland’s continued commercial whaling activities.

Since the ban was introduced in 1986, the International Whaling Commission (IWC) meetings have been characterised by unending confrontation between pro- and anti-whaling factions.

The three countries that have carried on commercial hunting regardless: Japan, by labelling its killing “scientific research and Norway and Iceland simply by lodging formal objections to the agreement, have had the upper hand in negotiations as a result of their ability to carry on despite the ban.

Pressure from conservation groups and strong popular opposition to whaling has left things at an impasse for years, but this latest proposal has some powerful backers.

Principal among them is the US, whose officials in the negotiations have been strongly backing the proposal. They have previously been vociferously opposed to any lifting of the ban, but their sudden support is thought to be in part because of their need for backing for subsistence whaling quotas for indigenous Inuit peoples in Alaska, which the US is obliged to seek from the IWC every few years.

In 2002, in return for American hostility to its “scientific” whaling, Japan blocked the quota, causing the US considerable embarrassment before the Japanese backed down. The next quota request is due in 2012 and some observers think the US wants to make sure it is on terms with Japan so the quota will not be blocked again.

The proposal is said to be a compromise intended to end the confrontation by “giving something to both sides”.

For conservationists, it suggests there might be reduced catches by the whaling countries, observers on some whaling boats, and a DNA database to trace the origin of whalemeat.

In return, there will be official IWC “quotas” set for whales that may be hunted, in all the places where they currently are hunted in spite of the moratorium, which would include the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary.

The quotas are being negotiated for a final version of the proposal, which is currently in draft, due in a month’s time. It will be voted on at the IWC conference in Agadir, Morocco, in June.

Should the deal go ahead, it would represent one of the most significant setbacks ever for conservation.

The ban was brought in after conservation groups showed that many populations of the great whales had been drastically reduced by over-hunting – blue whales, the largest of all, had been driven to the brink of extinction. They also highlighted that whaling itself, based on the firing of explosive harpoons into large and intelligent animals, was cruel.

Despite the ban, countries defying it have still done considerable damage to whale populations. Between them, although there is little market for whale meat, they have since killed more than 30,000 great whales, mainly minke whales, but also Bryde’s, fin, sei and sperm whales. There are fears that these numbers will escalate, however closely monitored the resumption of legal hunting will be.

“This deal spells disaster for whales,” said Vassili Papastavrou, whale scientist for the International Fund for Animal Welfare. “I can’t imagine how the very countries that fought so hard for the adoption of the whaling moratorium and the establishment of the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary should now even be considering legitimising commercial whaling. If this goes ahead, the IWC will abandon science and return to the dark days of the 1950s.”

Mark Simmonds, head of science for the Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society, does not believe assurances that the ban will be retained: “These are weasel words,” he said. “Even though the moratorium would remain in place, the reality is that it will be nullified. The proposal on the table is quite frankly disastrous. It legitimises commercial whaling once again.”

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